While Indonesia’s 2026 macroeconomic outlook is optimistic, a structural shift is transforming the Ramadan Holy Month. Data from the YMT & Modcart Shopper Survey reveals that while the “Ramadan Wallet” is expanding, the “Ramadan Filter” is tightening. We have moved from festive impulsivity to a season of Intentional Spending.
For marketers, the “Ramadan story” has shifted from high-level branding to a high-stakes battle for the shopping cart.
- Spending Growth Meets High-Scrutiny Budgets
The numbers are encouraging: 73% of shoppers plan to increase spending. However, this capital is bifurcated. Growth is concentrated in essentials, with consumers ruthlessly cutting non-essentials or delaying luxury purchases until the THR (holiday bonus) arrives. In 2026, utility and price competitiveness are the primary gatekeepers of the wallet.
- The “Kitchen-First” Economy
A significant 69% of shoppers plan to prepare Iftar at home. This “Home-Centricity” is a strategic move to balance rising costs with tradition. Consequently, capital is flowing into groceries and fresh food. Brands must transition from being “part of the celebration” to being “staples in the pantry.”
- The Death of the “Default” Brand
Brand equity is no longer a shield. 77% of shoppers now prioritize promotions over brand names at the point of purchase. This “Conditional Loyalty” means consumers will switch brands without hesitation for a clearer economic advantage. The transaction, not the tradition, is driving the final decision.
- The “Lunch Hour” Logistics
Conversion windows are narrowing. Store traffic and digital activity are peaking between 12:00 PM and 3:00 PM as shoppers “pre-game” their evenings to avoid the Iftar rush. Brands that front-load visibility and availability during this three-hour window are capturing a disproportionate share of daily spend.
Executive Summary
The 2026 shopper isn’t spending less; they are spending smarter. Success depends on three pillars:
- Economic Value: Clear, upfront savings that justify the purchase.
- Household Alignment: Positioning products as essential for the home-cooked experience.
- Tactical Execution: Ensuring peak availability before the 3:00 PM cutoff.
Insights powered by a survey of 8,700+ shoppers across the Modcart Store network Indonesia of 25,000+
