The Illusion of the Top Decile
Marketers love lists. And nothing feels better than having a list of your “most likely to buy” customers.
They’re the sure bets, the low-hanging fruit.
The logic seems airtight: if someone has the highest probability of purchase, your ad dollars will have the biggest impact.
Except… that’s not always true.
The Movable Middles Growth Framework (MMGF) proves that the very top of your propensity model isn’t always where the incremental growth lives.
The Paradox in Action
In MMGF testing, we split the highest-propensity audience — the top decile — into two halves.
The expectation? The highest half would deliver the best results.
The reality? The slightly less likely half outperformed the absolute top.
Why? The very top is full of loyalists — people who have already made their decision. They’re going to buy, advertising or not.
Your spend here often produces low incremental lift.
The “almost-there” group, however, is persuadable. They’re still weighing options. They still have questions. And your advertising can tip the scale.
The MMGF Proof
When brands shifted just 20% of budget from unresponsive audiences to persuadables:
- ROAS increased by 50%
- The targeting could be predicted with 99% accuracy for any brand, in any category
- More non-buyers were reached and converted
It’s not about abandoning high-propensity audiences — it’s about understanding where the incremental impact lies.
Why This Matters for CMOs and CEOs
In a world of tightening budgets and rising media costs, every wasted impression matters.
Spending on loyalists who will buy anyway might feel safe, but it’s money that could be moving the fence-sitters into your column.
This is especially critical in competitive markets where share is won and lost at the margins. The difference between growth and stagnation often comes from the middle ground, not the extremes.
How to Act
- Split Your Top Tier
If you have propensity scoring, divide your top decile in half and test them separately.
- Measure Incremental Impact
Track not just conversions, but lift over a control group to see which half delivers more incremental sales.
- Reallocate Smartly
Shift budget toward the “almost-there” half without ignoring the loyalist group completely.
- Align Creative Messaging
Persuadables may need different messaging than loyalists — focus on reassurance, proof points, and competitive differentiation.
Closing POV & CTA
The Decile Paradox flips the common targeting playbook: the best opportunity isn’t always the very top.
It’s the people on the edge — close enough to see the value, but far enough to need convincing.
📈 We guarantee MMGF can pinpoint persuadable buyers in your market with near-perfect accuracy and prove the lift before scaling. Contact us to explore your custom targeting map: https://www.mmaglobal.com/apac/join-our-global-programs?utm_source=mma&utm_medium=marketingtnt&utm_campaign=apac
