By now, we’ve all heard the complaint: “My branding campaign didn’t move the needle.” But what if that’s not true — yet?
New findings from MMA Global’s Brand as Performance (BaP) research and recent CPG case studies are challenging one of the most sacred assumptions in marketing: that we should measure impact right away. The data suggests we may be looking in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The Real ROI Clock is Delayed
Let’s talk about Kroger. In a recent BaP study, 80% of the total sales lift from their campaign occurred after the campaign had ended. You read that right. The bulk of value came in the seven months following the ad spend, not during.
It gets better (or worse, depending on your KPIs):
- Newly favorable non-customers converted at 3x the usual rate
- Existing customers who became more favorable stayed longer
- Penetration gains weren’t even visible until later in the year
If we judged success using traditional attribution models, this campaign would have looked like a miss. Instead, it was quietly building long-term value.
Why Your Attribution Model is Lying to You
Right now, marketing leaders still face internal skepticism. According to MMA, 70% of marketers say measurement isn’t trusted outside of marketing. That’s no surprise. Most models reward short-term, performance-based signals like clicks and conversions.
But brand doesn’t operate on that schedule. BaP studies show that brand favorability works more like a time-release asset. It builds slowly but delivers long-term gains. If we only measure immediate outcomes, we miss the real drivers of sustainable growth.
From Clicks to Clocks: Rethinking Campaign Timing
When measurement stops the moment a campaign ends, we ignore when the real impact begins. Longitudinal studies like those in BaP use persistent IDs and connected datasets to follow consumer behavior over time. This creates a richer picture of marketing effectiveness — one that includes tomorrow, not just today.
Your Future ROAS Is Already in Motion
Viant and NCS introduced the concept of The Persuadables: consumers who are heavy buyers and nearing their next purchase. When brands targeted this group, they saw ROAS improve up to 16 times compared to average audiences.
Aligning advertising with a buyer’s natural cycle amplifies results. But to see that impact, you need a model that sticks around long enough to capture it.
Bottom Line: Measure Slowly to Grow Fast
Marketing moves fast. But maybe we’re moving too fast to see what’s really working.
Here’s the new challenge: what if your best-performing campaign hasn’t paid off yet?
What if your current measurement tools are optimized for speed, but not for value?
The next level of marketing performance will belong to brands that plan for the long term and build measurement systems that can keep up.
The future is already in motion. You just have to wait for it.
#BrandAsPerformance #MarketingMeasurement #LongTermROI #MMAInsight #TNT
